Download or read book Predicting New Venture Survival and Growth written by Alex Coad and published by . This book was released on 2016 with total page 25 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: This paper investigates whether new venture performance becomes easier to predict as the venture ages: does the fog lift? To address this question we primarily draw upon a theoretical framework, initially formulated in a managerial context by Levinthal (1991) that sees new venture sales as a random walk but survival being determined by the stock of available resources (proxied by size). We derive theoretical predictions that are tested with a 10-year cohort of 6579 UK new ventures in the UK. We observe that our ability to predict firm growth deteriorates in the years after entry -- in terms of the selection environment, the 'fog' seems to thicken. However, our survival predictions improve with time -- implying that the 'fog' does lift.