How Do Fiscal Consolidation and Fiscal Stimuli Impact on the Synchronization of Business Cycles?
Author | : Guglielmo Maria Caporale |
Publisher | : |
Total Pages | : 0 |
Release | : 2017 |
ISBN-10 | : OCLC:1375586186 |
ISBN-13 | : |
Rating | : 4/5 (86 Downloads) |
Download or read book How Do Fiscal Consolidation and Fiscal Stimuli Impact on the Synchronization of Business Cycles? written by Guglielmo Maria Caporale and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movement of business cycles across countries. From a policy perspective, our work shows that an inflation targeting regime coupled with simultaneous fiscal consolidations can lead to more business cycle synchronization.